AEFI ECONOMIC OBSERVATORY ON THE TRADE FAIR SECTOR

The growth trend continues: positive results for Italian Trade Fairs in the first quarter of 2019 too. Short term forecasts are less optimistic, in line with the uncertainty of the world economy

The fortieth quarterly survey on trends in the Italian trade fair sector, conducted by the AEFI-Associazione Esposizioni e Fiere Italiane Economic Observatory for the January – March 2019 period, confirms the trend of the previous quarter and indicates continuous improvement overall.

The qualitative survey, which involved 27 AEFI-member Italian trade fair districts – through the positive and negative balances defined on the basis of responses from members who took part in the analysis (*) – highlights a positive trend for all indicators considered: number of exhibitions, total exhibitors and visitors and rented space. There is clear growth for Italian exhibitors and visitors, and total turnover is increasing too.

The global economic uncertainty is reflected in the short-term forecasts of the members involved in the survey.

The number of exhibitions continues to grow: the majority of the districts that participated in the analysis, 55%, hosted more events, while only 22% registered a decrease and the same percentage remained stationary. The balance, equal to + 33%, is in line with the end of 2018 (+ 31%) and a marked increase compared to the same period last year, when it stood at + 20%.

The number of exhibitors has continued to grow steadily: approximately half (48%) of the members participating in the survey reported an increase, while 26% of them reported a downturn.
The balance of +22% – the difference between those who foresee an increase and those who foresee a decrease – indicates positive performance, although less markedly so compared to the final quarter of 2018 (+31%), but in line with the end of March last year (+20%).

Exhibitor provenance analysis indicates that the growth can be attributed to the Italians (balance +30%). Less dynamic are the Europeans, with a balance of +4%, and non-EU operators with a zero balance.

Rented space has also grown, as a result of increased event and exhibitor numbers: during the quarter in question, approximately 67% of members participating in the survey recorded an increase. The balance of +48% is very positive, higher both with respect to the previous quarter (+27%), and compared to the same period last year (+16%).

The greatest contribution to the total rented space was made by Italian exhibitors, with a balance of +41%, while rented space by EU exhibitors is up +11%, followed by non-EU exhibitors at +4%.

Visitor influx was positive too: an increase for 61.56% of respondents, and a decrease for 26.91%. The balance, +35% (net of the static component), is markedly higher both with respect to the end of 2018 (+4%) and compared to the same period last year (+8%).

Turnover is up for a significant +37% of exhibitors for the quarter, due to the % of participating members who reported growth (55.58%) or a reduction (18.5%). This balance is a significant improvement on the final quarter of last year (+23%), and also on the data for the end of March 2018 (+20%).

Forecasts for the second quarter of 2019 for all indicators are less optimistic and highly cautious, in line with the expected evolution of the world economy.

*METHODOLOGICAL NOTE: The analysis is qualitative, in that it shows the trends in the sector according to the responses from the AEFI members who took part in the survey.
The positive and negative balances are not percentages of absolute values, but differences between the percentages of those who responded indicating improved and worsened situations.

AEFI – Associazione Esposizioni e Fiere Italiane, a private non-profit Association, was established in 1983 with the goal of generating synergies between the most important Italian exhibition districts. AEFI would like to be seen as a privileged partner for operators and institutions alike, and its role is to support members through the development of activities and programmes in the sphere of training, marketing, promotion and research, as well as to provide services for trade fairs through the activities of its Committees: Exhibition Hub Technical Committee, Legal-Administrative Committee, Internationalisation Committee and Trade Fairs Network Committee.

On the internationalization front, AEFI supports members thanks to agreements with strategic markets. To date, partnerships have been agreed with Iran, Taiwan, Lebanon, India, Thailand and South Africa, with AmCham, the American Chamber of Commerce in Italy, with CENTREX, the International Exhibition Statistics Union and with EUPIC-EU Project Innovation Center. A memorandum of understanding has been signed with SACE and SIMEST.

AEFI has promoted the foundation of ISFCert, the Certification Institute for Exhibition Industry Statistics which, through rigorous methodologies, enables Italian organisers to present and recognise standardised data, in the name of transparency and reliability.
AEFI represents Italian trade fairs in UFI – Union of International Fairs. Chaired by Giovanni Laezza, AEFI includes 36 member exhibition districts, which organise over 1,000 events a year over an overall exhibition area of 4.2 million square metres. Nearly all international and national trade fairs which take place each year in Italy are held in AEFI-member exhibition districts.